Murky shores: Russia tightens its grip in Abkhazia
As Russia and Ukraine negotiate a naval ceasefire in the Black Sea, something ominous is taking place on its eastern shores. In Abkhazia, Georgia’s breakaway region locked in a frozen conflict since 2008, the latest elections underscored Russia’s tightening grip on its domestic politics. The pro-Russian candidate, Badra Gunba, secured victory with 54% of the vote. While the Kremlin swiftly extended its congratulations, emphasising the need to strengthen “friendly, allied Russian-Abkhazian relations…for the benefit of our fraternal peoples”, the European Union and multiple journalists deemed the election illegitimate, citing Russian interference. This aligns with Moscow’s familiar pattern of alleged meddling in the democratic processes of former Soviet States, including Moldova and Romania in 2024.
The latest election in March was prompted by mass demonstrations at the end of 2024, which pressured Aslan Bzhania – Abkhazia’s president - to resign. He is the third leader to be ousted as a result of civic backlash since 2014. This time, the main grievance was a property agreement law negotiated between Moscow and Bzhania’s government. The law would allow Russian companies registered in Abkhazia to avoid paying taxes – an issue opponents argued would harm the livelihoods of Abkhazians and lead to an influx of Russian migrants. In the eyes of Abkhazian citizens, Bzhania was selling them out and compromising the region’s sovereignty.
Concerned about the power vacuum formed in Bzhania’s absence, Russia resorted to weaponising energy to pressure Abkhazia to get back in line. Electricity shortages crippled Abkhazia’s already struggling economy, causing severe food inflation. As Abkhazian public officials’ salaries are funded by the Russian budget, the Kremlin froze allocations as additional leverage. This was not only intended to intimidate Abkhazians into submission but also to demonstrate that Russia holds the trump cards and will not hesitate to inflict maximum damage if necessary.
Gunba’s candidacy represented a clear trade-off: increased Russian influence in region in exchange for stability and investment. Even before his election victory, this dynamic was evident. Following a meeting between Gunba and Lavrov, Moscow announced a $3.6 million fund dedicated to Abkhazian energy and economic security.
While many Abkhazians, exhausted by months of uncertainty and economic hardship, are relieved to see a concrete election outcome, others remain vocal in their opposition to growing Russian control. Meanwhile, Russia is swiftly suppressing the remaining dissidents in Abkhazia relying on the same repressive tactics it uses at home. At the end of March, the Kremlin added Izida Chania and Nizfa Arshba – both prominent Abkhazian journalists critical of the elections – to the Foreign Agents Registry, accusing them of spreading false information about Russian authorities.
Gunba will have to walk a fine line between appeasing his Russian backers and avoiding the perception among the Abkhazian public that he is yielding too much to Moscow. How successfully he navigates this challenge remains to be seen. What is undeniable, however, is that Russia’s focus extends beyond its war in Ukraine. Expanding its influence in the South Caucasus remains a key priority on Putin’s geopolitical agenda.